“The news is out… all over town”
~ Hank Williams
MuniBonds have been
rallying.
Investors are
catching on.
Value still remains further
out on the curve.
Bloomberg Muni Index
rallied approximately 2% in August 2025 as investors invested more than $2
billion (net) into MuniBond funds, according to FactSet.
In addition, the
Bloomberg Muni Index posted a total return of 2.3% for September bringing
year-to-date returns to 2.6% as of September 30, 2025. In fact, since the end
of August 2025, it is apparent that individual investors have "gotten the news" and have invested over $7 billion (net) into
MuniBond mutual funds.
Total return
performance in September was positive across the curve. The biggest
outperformers were the long end (4.1%) and 20y (3.9%). At
the shorter end of the curve, MuniBonds with 1-year and the 3-year maturities
returned only 0.1%.
Remember that in July, I posted that 89% of YTD inflows into MuniBond mutual funds
and ETFs have focused on the intermediate and short segments of
the yield curve. This is the individual investor and/or the financial advisor
investing capital for their clients.
Conversely, over the
last year, we have been buying long bonds priced to a 9–10 year
call with maturities longer than 20 years because the yield curve has dictated that
this is where the value is. (think more yield)
Our clients “win
again” (another nod to Hank Williams) as the yield curve has flattened, and our
clients have seen their long MuniBonds appreciate as yields have come down
approximately 50bps. Remember, when bond prices go up, yields come down.
The new issuance calendar remains strong,
and the value (more yield) remains in the 20-year plus maturity priced to a 9-10
year call. Yields in this structure remain above 4.60% to a 10-year call after
the recent rally. TEYs are above 8%.
These yields may disappear if the public investor continues to buy. If you have capital in money market, bonds approaching a maturity, CDs, bond funds and this capital has a 5 plus year run way, give us a call.
W. Jeffrey
Watkinson, MBA
Co-CIO
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